Wednesday, July 8

SpaceX stumbles out of the gate on Nasdaq

The most hyped stock market debut in years is already trading below its opening price, and the reasons why tell a complicated story about hype versus fundamentals.

SpaceX's post-IPO slide suggests the market is starting to price in the risk, not just the dream

SpaceX closed below its $150 IPO price for the second straight day even as Cathie Wood bought in, Raymond James slapped an $800 price target on it, and the company announced a $60 billion acquisition of AI coding platform Cursor alongside a new AI product launch.

The problem is that a price-to-sales ratio north of 100 leaves no room for disappointment, and when a legendary investor like Jeremy Grantham publicly warns of a historic collapse, even true believers start doing the math.

Strong order momentum at Boeing cannot translate to revenue until the factory output gap closes

Boeing is closing in on a deal to sell 10 wide-body jets to Etihad Airways, expected to be announced at this month's Farnborough Airshow, while simultaneously opening a fourth 737 MAX assembly line to expand production capacity.

The catch is that Boeing is building 42 planes a month against a backlog sized for 72 to 80, meaning the revenue upside everyone is excited about only materializes if the company can fix its manufacturing pace first.

ResMed's software sale looks less like strategic focus and more like a retreat the market wasn't buying

ResMed announced the $490 million sale of its MatrixCare software unit to Frazier Healthcare Partners, framing the move as a sharpening of focus on sleep and home-based care.

But the stock's sharp drop on the day of a supposedly good announcement is the market's verdict that ResMed has not yet proven its growth story still holds.

  • Apple's largest-ever U.S. manufacturing commitment locks in Broadcom
  • BHP iron ore workers set to strike July 16, threatening $83 million daily
  • Amazon borrows $25 billion more to fund AI data center buildout

Today's market conversation kept circling back to the same tension: companies with compelling stories but execution gaps that the numbers are starting to expose, from SpaceX's valuation math to Boeing's factory bottleneck to ResMed's strategic pivot that spooked rather than reassured.

The thing to watch tomorrow is whether Boeing's Farnborough Airshow announcement actually lands, because a confirmed Etihad deal would be the first real test of whether order momentum can move the stock despite the production shortfall hanging over it.

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