Friday, July 3

Tesla beats delivery targets, then drops hard

A fatal Autopilot crash and a sky-high valuation proved more powerful than good delivery numbers.

Tesla's delivery beat didn't matter because the valuation left no room for bad news

Tesla reported a fatal Autopilot crash in Texas overshadowing a strong delivery quarter, with 480,000 vehicles delivered topping Wall Street's expectations and a new robotaxi expansion to Miami announced, yet the stock fell sharply as the crash added fresh scrutiny to the company's autonomous driving ambitions.

When a stock is priced at nearly 200 times what the company is expected to earn next year, every piece of negative news hits harder than it would anywhere else, with simply no cushion built into the price.

Microsoft's layoffs reveal a company betting the house on AI while cutting the people around it

Microsoft is preparing to cut up to 5,000 workers across its sales, consulting, and Xbox teams even as it commits to spending that would see it and its peers collectively pour $1 trillion into artificial intelligence by 2027, with the company's free cash flow expected to turn negative next year.

The contradiction is the story: laying off thousands while burning cash at historic rates is a high-wire act that leaves almost no room for the AI buildout to disappoint.

Rivian's raised guidance is a signal that the electric truck market has more room than skeptics thought

Rivian beat its second-quarter delivery forecast and lifted its full-year outlook, sending shares up more than eight percent and suggesting that demand for its trucks and vans is holding up better than the broader EV slowdown narrative implied.

The more interesting long-term story is Rivian's software partnership with Volkswagen, which analysts say could eventually generate far higher profit margins than simply selling vehicles, a business model shift that the market may be starting to price in.

  • Apple's unreleased iPhone design leaked in a government investigation
  • Alibaba backs a $15 billion AI video startup alongside Tencent
  • Bank earnings season kicks off Monday with major lenders reporting

Today's session was really a story about how much punishment good news can absorb when valuations are stretched and one piece of bad news lands at the wrong moment, as Tesla demonstrated.

The most concrete thing to watch next week is the start of bank earnings on July 14th, when Wells Fargo, JPMorgan, and others report, and those results will set the tone for whether corporate America's profit outlook is as healthy as recent revisions suggest.

You shouldn't have to go looking. See your first brief today.

Download on the App Store